1st Triathlon Predictions

I can hardly believe that I will be participating in a triathlon tomorrow morning! Remember when I thought I wasn't a runner? Yeah, I though I was even less of a swimmer. Not only have I learned to swim with my head in the water in just 5 short weeks--and 13 swim sessions--I am actually enjoying it.

Tomorrow I will conquer my fear of open water! I am terrified, but I think I am finally more excited than scared =) My inaugural tri race is the Lake Louisa Sprint Tri #4: 1/4 mile swim, 7 mile bike, 1.5 mile run.

My main goals for this race are 1) don't drown :P  2) finish with a smile on my face ... in an upright position ... doing something that resembles a running motion =D I know I shouldn't have a time goal for my first tri, but it would be awesome if I could finish at or under 1 hour. This may be tight, but 1:05 - 1:10 is totally doable.

I think I stand a chance of meeting the 1 hour time goal, or coming real close, if 1) I don't completely freak out in the water, 2) if I can push hard on the bike, 3) but not too hard that I can't run. Here is the breakdown of how I see each leg playing out:

• swim: This is the leg that concerns me most, but I have a feeling (I'm hoping) the adrenaline will kick in, and I will surprise myself. Everyone says the lake is shallow and I can stand up, but I really want to try to swim as much as possible--even if "swimming" means doggy paddling   or rolling over on my back to catch my breath :) Once I exit the water, and the swim is behind me, I'll be on top of the world and the rest will come naturally. I'm allocating this leg 20 minutes--what I hope is a gross overestimation. 

• bike: I averaged 15.5 mph on the bike for 13.4 miles at the duathlon (after running 2.5 miles), so I am hoping I can push it to 16-17 for these 7 miles, especially since I won't have to slow down to round a corner every 1/2 a mile. This would mean 25-28 minutes on the bike.

• run: I'd like to run the entire 1.5 miles, but I may have to walk a bit if I push too hard on the bike. I'll just try to start slow and pick up the pace as I go. I think I can gut it out for such a short distance and just slow down instead of walking if I need to. My estimate for the run is 16-19 minutes.

So yeah, 1 hour will be really tight, especially once we throw in an additional 5 minutes for the transitions. No matter how it turns out, I'm going to give it my all and have fun!