2010 CF Sprint Tri #1 Predictions

Tomorrow is my first triathlon of the season. I still haven't been swimming, but I am looking forward to it. I had a solid brick workout on Sunday, which helped get me excited about it and led me to believe I won't suck so bad LOL. Let's just hope I don't drown and that it reignites my passion for the sport so I can get back in the pool. If not, I'll just get through these 3 races and then go back to focusing on my running :)

My goals for this race are mainly to finish and have fun! =) I'd love to finish in under 1:30, but I think 1:40 is more realistic unless I can really push hard on the bike and still have enough left for a decent run. Last year I finished in 1:29, but this year the bike is 2 miles longer.

Below are some predictions/hopes for each leg:

• Swim: 15 minutes - I am really hoping this is a gross overestimation and I'll manage something closer to last year's 12:19, but I haven't been swimming lately. Hopefully the work I did earlier in the summer will come back to me, but I am not expecting much here. 
• Bike: 15-16 mph (40m) - I think 15 mph is very doable if I push hard; last year I averaged 14.8 mph. I rode 11 miles on Sunday @ 16 mph average, but that was on a very flat route. This triathlon is in Clermont with rolling hills, so that will be a little more challenging.
• Run: 11:30 - 12 min/mile (36m) - I'm aiming high here, but I won't be surprised if I'm slower. On Sunday, the run portion of my brick was 12:24 min/mile for 2 miles. Last year my average was 12:50, but I was being cautious and not pushing myself because of a foot injury. This pace is doable, but I'll have to dig deep. Hopefully I don't destroy my legs on the bike too much, and I can still at least manage to average 12 min/mile. I'll probably use walk breaks to make this happen.
• Transitions: 5 minutes - This is consistent with my times last year, and I hope I can at least manage the same this time. It will also depend on how far transition is from the beach, and where my spot is.
• T1: rinse and dry feet, put on socks, shoes, helmet and camelbak. I'll eat a gu roctane as I get on the bike or walk to the mount line. I'm wearing my camelbak instead of messing with water bottles. Reaching for and replacing water bottles in their cages always slows me down more than the few seconds I'll spend putting on the camelbak. I'm debating whether to wear a headband under my helmet, but I think I can suffer through 10 miles without one. Same goes for gloves.
• T2: remove helmet, move garmin to wrist, change shoes, grab water bottle, hat, and racing belt and put them on as I walk out of transition. I'll eat another gu roctane (stored in my racing belt) as I start the run. 

I think that covers everything. What am I missing? Anyone else racing this weekend? What are your plans/goals?